Ethiopia(Hayaannews):
Suddenly Ethiopia appears on the brink of civil war, threatening the stability
of one of the world’s most strategic regions, the Horn of Africa, and the
fracturing of one of Africa’s most powerful and populous countries.
But
the crisis in Ethiopia, a key U.S. security ally, has been building for months,
and “it has been like watching a train crash in slow motion,” Dino Mahtani with
the International Crisis Group said this week.
Now
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year
for sweeping political reforms, faces the sharpest consequences yet of the
country’s recent shifts in power.
Here
are key reasons for the international alarm:
WHAT
JUST HAPPENED?
Two
things occurred early Wednesday morning: Communications were cut in Ethiopia’s
heavily armed northern Tigray region, and Abiy announced he had ordered troops
to respond to an alleged deadly attack by Tigray’s forces on a military base
there. Both sides have accused each other of initiating the fighting.
And
both stepped up pressure late Thursday. Ethiopia’s army said it was deploying
troops from around the country to Tigray, and the Tigray leader alleged that
fighter jets had bombed parts of the regional capital. “We are ready to be
martyrs,” he said. Casualties have been reported on both sides.
Some
experts have compared the confrontation to an inter-state war, with two large
and well-trained forces and little sign of backing down. Ethiopia is one of
Africa’s most well-armed nations, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front
dominated Ethiopia’s military and government before Abiy took office in 2018.
It has plenty of conflict experience from Ethiopia’s years-long border war with
Eritrea, next door to the Tigray region, and the International Crisis Group
estimates that the TPLF’s paramilitary force and local militia have some
250,000 troops.
With
communications still out, it’s difficult to verify either side’s account of
events on the ground.
HOW
DID WE GET HERE?
Ethiopia’s
ruling coalition appointed Abiy as prime minister in 2018 to help calm months
of anti-government protests, and he quickly won praise — and the Nobel — for
opening political space and curbing repressive measures in the country of some
110 million people and scores of ethnic groups. But the TPLF felt increasingly
marginalized, and last year it withdrew from the ruling coalition.
The
TPLF objects to Ethiopia’s delayed election, blamed on the COVID-19 pandemic,
and Abiy’s extended time in office. In September, the Tigray region voted in a
local election that Ethiopia’s federal government called illegal. The federal
government later moved to divert funding from the TPLF executive to local
governments, angering the regional leadership.
On
Monday, Tigray leader Debretsion Gebremichael warned a bloody conflict could
erupt.
WHAT
COULD HAPPEN NOW?
The
conflict could spread to other parts of Ethiopia, where some regions have been
calling for more autonomy, and deadly ethnic violence has led the federal
government to restore measures including arresting critics.
Addressing
those fears, Ethiopia’s deputy army chief Birhanu Jula late Thursday said of
Tigray, “The war will end there.”
Some
governments and experts are urgently calling for dialogue over Tigray, but a
Western diplomat in the capital, Addis Ababa, says “the message from the
Ethiopians is, if you talk about a dialogue you equate the two parties, but
’This is a legitimate government, that’s a renegade group.’” The objective as
put forward by Ethiopia is to crush the TPLF, the diplomat said on condition of
anonymity, and “if I say I’m going to crush you, then is there really scope for
any negotiation?”
The
TPLF before the fighting said it’s not interested in negotiating with the
federal government, and it has sought the release of detained leaders as a
precondition to talks. An inclusive dialogue must occur, observers say, but a
statement late Thursday by a panel of former U.S. diplomats and military
experts for the United States Institute of Peace warned it won’t go far “while
many of the country’s most prominent political leaders remain in prison.”
WHAT
DOES THIS MEAN BEYOND ETHIOPIA?
Few
regions are more vulnerable than the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s neighbors
include Somalia — Ethiopian forces have reportedly begun withdrawing from that
country to return home — and Sudan, facing its own huge political transition.
Neighboring Eritrea has shown little sign of opening up after making peace with
Ethiopia in 2018, and its government and the Tigray one don’t get along.
A
region in which Abiy has played high-profile peacemaker is now at risk.
Observers warn that a conflict could suck in these countries and others not far from the most strategic military outpost in Africa, tiny Djibouti, where several global powers including the U.S. and China have their only military bases on the continent. The Horn of Africa is also a short water crossing away from Yemen and the rest of the Arabian Peninsula.
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, center, arrives for the opening session of the 33rd African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in February. On Wednesday, Abiy ordered the military to confront the Tigray regional government after he said it attacked a military base overnight, citing months of “provocation and incitement” and declaring that “the last red line has been crossed.”
Ethiopia
already was drawing concern over a dispute with downstream Egypt over a huge
dam Ethiopia is nearing completion on the Blue Nile. While there have been
worries about military action, “I would like to think Egypt is a responsible
enough actor to realize that fragmentation of Ethiopia is fundamentally so
damaging to regional security,” former U.S. diplomat Payton Knopf, a senior
advisor with the United States Institute of Peace, said this week.